Market Forecasting Treningskurs

Last updated

Kurskode

mrkfct

Varighet

14 timer (vanligvis 2 dag inkludert pauser)

Krav

Good Excel or other Spreadsheet knowledge

Solid Maths and Statistics knowledge

Oversikt

Publikum

Dette kurset er laget for analytikere, prognosemakere som ønsker å introdusere eller forbedre prognoser som kan være relatert til salgsprognoser, økonomisk prognoser, teknologiprognoser, styring av forsyningskjeden og etterspørsel eller tilbudsprognoser.

Beskrivelse

Dette kurset guider delegater gjennom serier av metodologier, rammer og algoritmer som er nyttige når du velger hvordan man skal forutsi fremtiden basert på historiske data.

Den bruker standardverktøy som Microsoft Excel eller noen Open Source-programmer (spesielt R-prosjekt).

Prinsippene som dekkes på dette kurset kan implementeres av hvilken som helst programvare (f.eks. SAS, SPSS, Statistica, MINITAB ...)

Machine Translated

Kursplan

Problems facing forecasters

  • Customer demand planning
  • Investor uncertainty
  • Economic planning
  • Seasonal changes in demand/utilization
  • Roles of risk and uncertainty

Time series methods

  • Moving average
  • Exponential smoothing
  • Extrapolation
  • Linear prediction
  • Trend estimation
  • Growth curve

Econometric methods (casual methods)

  • Regression analysis using linear regression or non-linear regression
  • Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
  • Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
  • Econometrics

Judgemental methods

  • Surveys
  • Delphi method
  • Scenario building
  • Technology forecasting
  • Forecast by analogy

Simulation and other methods

  • Simulation
  • Prediction market
  • Probabilistic forecasting and Ensemble forecasting
  • Reference class forecasting

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